November 11, 2026

The stock market is poised to start Wednesday on firmer footing. S&P 500 futures are up 0.58% at 7588.25, Nasdaq futures are up 1.42% and Dow futures are up a more modest 0.18%. CoreWeave (CRWV) results are reviving the AI infrastructure trade after a bruising stretch for chipmakers. That stretch included a 5.47% drop in NVDA and a 2.20% decline in MSFT that pushed Technology down 0.81% in the prior session. AVGO (+3.91%) and AMD (+1.30%) already showed that buyers are willing to discriminate within the group. A Goldman Sachs note calling chip stocks 'oversold,' alongside reports of Cathie Wood adding to a beaten-down semiconductor name, has given dip buyers some cover. Still, a Zacks headline flagging pre-market weakness argues against assuming the bounce will hold through the session.

The macro backdrop remains the governing constraint. Tuesday's CPI showed a 0.4% m/m headline gain and a 0.3% core increase, each a tenth above consensus. The year-over-year consensus stood at 3.9% headline and 2.8% core, so the trend is moving the wrong way for the Fed. Prediction markets have fully priced out any 2026 easing: Polymarket assigns 98% odds to no cuts this year. Real earnings were flat m/m and household debt climbed to $19.1 trillion from $18.8 trillion, both pointing to an increasingly stretched consumer. Discretionary retailers HD (-0.68%) and TJX (-0.88%) reflected that strain, while the Redbook reading of 10.1% y/y shows nominal spending is still holding up. One offset came from the Treasury market: the 10-year auction cleared at 5.020%, well below the prior 5.300% stop.

Beneath the surface, rotation favored defensively positioned and cyclical value pockets over mega-cap growth. Communication Services led with a 1.13% gain, although GOOGL, META and NFLX were flat to lower. Industrials (+0.43%) drew support from RTX (+2.02%) and UNP (+1.22%), more than offsetting a 2.39% drop in CAT. Healthcare (+0.29%) benefited from UNH (+1.89%) and LLY (+1.44%). Materials stood out for the wrong reason: NEM fell 4.15% and FCX 3.24% even as gold advanced 0.87% to $4,065.20. Crude is up 0.71% to $86.65 despite a 9.0-million-barrel API inventory build against an expected 1.0-million-barrel draw, which suggests geopolitical supply considerations are outweighing near-term fundamentals. Polymarket assigns just 14% odds to the U.S. announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by November 30.

Options positioning calls for caution. SPY 25-delta skew of 5.5% shows puts remain bid. The put/call volume ratio is a neutral 0.98, and the nearest-expiry implied move is roughly ±1.0%. The 20-session gamma regime has been negative, which tends to amplify moves, but today's read flipped positive and the dealer exposure is economically small. Positioning is therefore unlikely to be the dominant force; macro data and rates will matter more.

Today's calendar is light, limited to the weekly MBA mortgage data (prior 30-year rate 7.3%). The rest of the week carries more weight. Thursday brings initial jobless claims (consensus 195K), the 30-year bond auction and a slate of Fed speakers, including Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams. Friday's PPI is expected at +0.4% m/m and 6.6% y/y, with core at +0.3%. Another upside surprise there would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative and pressure the long-duration growth names now attempting to rebound. Next week's October retail sales (November 17) and FOMC minutes (November 18) round out a calendar that keeps rates firmly in the driver's seat for equity multiples.