Market Briefing — November 3, 2026

November 3, 2026

U.S. equity futures are mixed on Tuesday morning as traders position ahead of the midterm election results. S&P 500 futures are down 0.07% at 7,569, Nasdaq futures are up 0.34% on chip strength, and Dow futures are down 0.61%, weighed by a 3.88% pre-market drop in AAPL.

Breadth is soft beneath the surface. Only four of 11 sectors are trading higher pre-market (Energy, Technology, Utilities and Industrials), while the gains are concentrated in a handful of semiconductor names. Financials, Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare are all down more than 0.5%, which points to a defensive, narrow tape.

Industry Watch

Showing Strength

Energy+1.0%

WTI crude is up 0.73% to $97.16, keeping energy names bid. Refiners lead, with MPC up 2.12% and VLO up 1.33%, while COP (+0.78%), XOM (+0.46%) and CVX (+0.43%) follow.

Technology+0.3%

Semiconductors are carrying the sector. AMD is up 3.20% ahead of its earnings report, with AVGO up 1.92% and NVDA up 1.87%. That strength is being partly offset by AAPL (-3.88%) and MSFT (-0.69%).

Utilities+0.1%

Defensive positioning is keeping the group flat to slightly higher. AEP (+0.70%) is the standout.

Under Pressure

Financials-0.7%

Weakness is broad: JPM -0.80%, BAC -0.99%, MA -0.99% and V -0.71%. Election-related uncertainty is weighing on policy-sensitive banks and payment networks.

Consumer Staples-0.6%

Staples are lower across the board, including WMT (-0.93%), COST (-0.85%), PG (-0.83%) and KO (-0.75%), despite the cautious tone elsewhere.

Consumer Discretionary-0.6%

HD (-1.07%) and MCD (-1.01%) are dragging the group, with mortgage rates above 7% still a headwind for housing-linked names.

Healthcare-0.6%

Large-cap pharma and managed care are under pressure, led by UNH (-1.09%), LLY (-0.92%), ABBV (-0.86%) and MRK (-0.80%), as policy risk around the election reprices.

Moving the Market

Midterm elections: Today's vote is the dominant overnight risk. The SPY options market prices a ±1.2% move for the nearest expiry, with ATM IV at 20.1% and an IV Rank of 100/100, setting up a potential vol crush once results are known.

Chip strength versus AAPL: AMD (+3.20%) is rallying into its earnings report, alongside NVDA (+1.87%) and AVGO (+1.92%), which is lifting the Nasdaq. AAPL's 3.88% pre-market drop is the main drag on the Dow (-0.61%).

Macro data: JOLTS job openings (consensus 7.10M) and Factory Orders (consensus +1.2%) are due this morning. Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing PMI beat at 55.5, while its Prices component eased to 75.2 from 77.9.

Commodities: Crude is up 0.73% at $97.16 with Iran blockade risk still unresolved. Polymarket puts only 24% odds on an announced end to the blockade by November 30. Gold is down 0.84% to $3,936.30, pressuring FCX (-2.33%) and NEM (-0.91%).

Market Commentary

The equity futures market is in a holding pattern on Tuesday morning as investors brace for midterm election results. S&P 500 futures are down a fractional 0.07% at 7,569, while the Nasdaq (+0.34%) is outperforming on renewed semiconductor buying. The Dow is the clear laggard at -0.61%, with AAPL's 3.88% pre-market slide and broad weakness in financials holding the blue-chip average back. Overseas markets offer little help: the FTSE 100 is down 0.61%, the DAX is down 0.41% and the Nikkei is down 0.33%, with the Hang Seng (+0.57%) the only notable gainer.

Under the surface, the leadership is narrow. Chip stocks are doing the heavy lifting. AMD is up 3.20% ahead of its quarterly report, and AVGO (+1.92%) and NVDA (+1.87%) are riding along. Outside of semis and energy, the tape leans heavy. Financials (-0.73%) are seeing broad selling in JPM, BAC, V and MA, while Healthcare (-0.58%) is under pressure from UNH (-1.09%) and LLY (-0.92%), groups whose outlook could shift with the election outcome. Notably, Staples (-0.63%) are offering no safe haven, which suggests de-risking rather than rotation into defensives. Energy (+1.01%) is the top sector as WTI holds near $97 amid ongoing Iran blockade uncertainty, and refiners MPC (+2.12%) and VLO (+1.33%) are leading the group.

The macro backdrop remains one of firm growth with sticky inflation. Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5, beating the 54.6 consensus, although construction spending missed sharply at -1.9%. The ISM Prices component eased to 75.2 from 77.9, a modest relief for inflation hawks. Even so, Polymarket assigns 97% odds to no Fed rate cuts in 2026, a reminder that policy support is not part of the equation. This morning's JOLTS report (consensus 7.10M openings) and Factory Orders (consensus +1.2%) will be the session's data focus. Wednesday brings ISM Services and the Treasury Refunding Announcement, and the week ends with Friday's October jobs report, where consensus looks for nonfarm payrolls of 65K following a soft 29K print.

Options positioning argues for caution. SPY's IV Rank sits at 100, 25-delta skew is bid at 4.0%, and the put/call volume ratio is a bearish 1.61. Dealers remain in negative gamma, a regime confirmed over 14 sessions with roughly -$13.4B in GEX per 1% move, which tends to amplify moves in either direction. SPY's implied level near 753 sits below its zero-gamma flip at 765, while the 750 strike serves as both the call and put wall, making it a key pivot. The setup leaves room for a sharp relief rally if election results bring clarity and implied volatility collapses. If results are contested or delayed, however, the negative-gamma regime could accelerate downside. Expect choppy, low-conviction trading during regular hours, with the decisive move likely coming in Wednesday's session.

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