August 13, 2026

Stocks are treading water Thursday morning as investors pocket Wednesday's AI-led gains and turn to the next inflation print. The S&P 500 sits at 7752.99 (+0.06%) and the Nasdaq at 26611.42 (+0.09%), while the Dow lags marginally at 53754.30 (-0.03%). The muted open follows an in-line July CPI report that showed headline inflation at 3.4% YoY and core at 2.5% YoY — enough to keep the soft-landing thesis alive but not enough to alter a Fed that markets increasingly expect to stay parked. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei 225 stood out with a 1.76% surge, while European bourses were slightly heavy (DAX -0.23%, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.26%).

Sector leadership tells a nuanced story. Real Estate (+1.06%) tops the tape, aided by a firm 10-year auction (4.683%) and a rebound in mortgage applications (+3.6%), with EQIX +3.56% and WELL +1.88% pacing the group. Technology (+0.93%) remains the market's engine, powered by NVDA +3.03% and AMD +1.82% as the AI-infrastructure spend narrative gained fresh legs from CoreWeave, Nebius and Lumentum. Notably, that strength is masking real dispersion under the surface — MSFT is down 2.26% and AAPL off 0.87%, while Communication Services (-1.26%) is dragged by META -3.38%. Materials (-1.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.89%, with HD -3.12% and AMZN -1.83%) round out the laggards.

The session's pivotal catalyst arrives at 12:30 PM ET, when July PPI (F: +0.2% MoM, Core F: +0.3% MoM) and Initial Jobless Claims (F: 202K vs. 199K prior) print simultaneously. A hot PPI would complicate the disinflation story and lend credence to the surprisingly hawkish rates picture — real-money prediction markets now assign 86% odds to zero Fed cuts in 2026 and, strikingly, a 32% probability of a 25 bp rate INCREASE at the September meeting versus 66% for no change. Fed officials Hammack and Barkin speak around midday and could add color, though neither is expected to break new ground.

Cross-asset signals reflect a market leaning cautious rather than committed. Gold is up 1.08% to $4456.60, extending its safe-haven bid, while crude sits at $82.95 (-0.38%) after a hefty +17.4M-barrel EIA inventory build blew past the -1.4M forecast. The intraday NQ correlation profile shows the index moving with the dollar (+0.52) and 10-year note (+0.58) but inversely to the VIX (-0.47) — a configuration that leaves equities vulnerable if yields back up on a firm PPI.

Options positioning underscores the setup: SPY at-面 IV is depressed with an IV Rank of 0 and an implied move of just ±0.7%, yet a negative-gamma GEX regime means dealer hedging could amplify any post-data swing. With Friday's retail sales, next week's FOMC minutes (Aug 19), and the Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 27-29) all on the horizon, cheap optionality into a data-heavy stretch may prove attractive. For now, the tape is content to consolidate near record territory while awaiting confirmation that the inflation glidepath remains intact.