August 4, 2026

Stock futures point to a higher open Tuesday, with the Dow (futures +1.10%) and Nasdaq (+1.09%) outrunning the S&P 500 (+0.31%) as an earnings-driven rotation dominates the tape. Caterpillar (CAT) is the headline act, jumping 10.9% pre-market and single-handedly lifting Industrials +1.74% and the price-weighted Dow. The move reinforces the prevailing narrative that corporate results — not the simmering US-Iran headlines — are the market's primary driver, a view echoed across the earnings-focused wires this morning.

Technology (+0.75%) is again riding the semiconductor complex, with AMD +4.38%, AVGO +2.81% and NVDA +1.88% offsetting notable weakness in MSFT (-2.13%) and a soft AAPL (-0.29%). That divergence is telling: the AI-capex trade remains intact, but software and mega-cap platforms are seeing selective distribution, with Communication Services down 0.72% on META -1.82%, GOOGL -1.15% and NFLX -1.13%. AMZN -2.20% is dragging on Consumer Discretionary despite TSLA +0.98%, while McDonald's (MCD +1.16%) firms even as the company flagged slowing sales growth among budget-strained consumers.

The commodity picture underscores the shifting geopolitical calculus. Crude oil is off 2.91% to $78 as the potential for a US-Iran deal deflates the war premium — Polymarket pegs a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 20% — and that is pressuring Energy (-1.19%), with XOM -1.30% and COP -1.49%. Meanwhile, Gold is up 2.11% to $4,118.7, a haven and inflation-hedge bid that dovetails with NQ's positive 0.45 rolling correlation to gold and lifts Materials names like FCX +3.71% and NEM +1.94%.

The macro backdrop remains supportive after Monday's data trifecta: ISM Manufacturing PMI beat at 55.6 (F: 54.0), with New Orders (56.7) and Employment (52.8) both topping forecasts — a distinctly firmer read on factory activity. Attention now turns to today's 2:00 PM ET releases, headlined by JOLTS Job Openings (F: 7.4M vs 7.594M prior) and Factory Orders (F: +0.2%), which open a labor-heavy week that runs through Friday's nonfarm payrolls (F: 80K, unemployment steady at 4.2%). With Polymarket assigning an 89% probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026, the data will be parsed for any crack in the labor market that could reopen the easing debate.

Options positioning argues for a contained session. SPY implied volatility is depressed with an IV Rank of 0 and an implied move of just ±0.6%, while a positive-gamma GEX regime — zero-gamma at 757 with a call wall at 758 and put wall at 755 — should keep dealer hedging a dampener on realized volatility. The mild 25-delta put skew (1.4%) reflects some residual downside hedging, but the message is cheap optionality ahead of Wednesday's ADP and Friday's jobs report. Note also Jamie Dimon's cautious remarks that he 'wouldn't buy the S&P 500 or long-dated Treasuries at current prices' — a valuation flag worth respecting with the index near record levels.